This Month in Review (Jan '26)

Infra Economics, Post-GPT Architectures, Autonomy & LiDAR, Intel, Semi Doped

This was a busy month. Here’s a summary what we covered in case you missed some of it.

Infrastructure Economics

Lithography Economics: EUV has a cost problem. Two US-based startups, xLight and Substrate, are taking different paths to bend the cost curve.

LRO/LPO Optics: At datacenter scale, every watt consumed by networking is a watt not available for compute. LRO and LPO offload transceiver DSP to the switch, trading modularity for power efficiency. They’re a stepping stone toward co-packaged optics.

Credo’s Reliability Thesis: AECs made Credo. But Credo is more than AECs.

Post-GPT Architecture

Microsoft Maia 200: Maia 200 is inference-first by design with a large on-die SRAM, 6,144-accelerator scale-up via Ethernet, 750W TDP, and no scale-out network. These decisions unlock a 30% improvement in price-performance. Deployed through Azure services, not bare metal.

Agentic Workloads: Speed isn’t enough for coding agents. Context grows with each iteration, and the KV cache must stay hot. Can pre-GPT accelerators built for stateless inference handle memory hierarchy? What about post-GPT designs (Etched, MatX)?

Frontier AI From Cloud to Desk in 5 Years: Frontier models have been migrating from the cloud to the desk on a 4 to 5-year cadence. GPT-4-class capabilities are now reaching workstations. What’s the implication? Think minicomputers in the mainframe era: TAM expansion.

Autonomy and LiDAR

LiDAR Primer: A primer on how LiDAR works. Wavelengths (905nm silicon vs 1550nm InGaAs), sensing methods (ToF vs FMCW), and why the technology is now viable at scale.

LiDAR Market: Waymo’s momentum has triggered an L4 gold rush. L3 programs are reaccelerating now that OEMs are decoupling ADAS from stalled EV platform transitions. Behind-the-windshield is the winning form factor. The market is consolidating toward one or two Western suppliers.

Intel

Intel Q4’25: Back to Reality: The stock run-up was vibes; the correction was reality. Supply constraints were telegraphed already, though. The turnaround is execution-bound, not quarter-driven. And don’t expect anything dramatic next quarter.

Intel’s Product Marketing at CES: B-: Intel led with real value props (battery, graphics) instead of AI hype. The AI PC pitch still lacks compelling GenAI use cases. Bright spot: Panther Lake on 18A shipping to edge and consumer simultaneously.

Semi Doped Podcast

I launched Semi Doped this month with Vik Sekar. The first seven episodes have surpassed 150K cumulative views on X. Follow along on X, any podcast player, or YouTube.