Intel Q425: Back to Reality
Continued supply constraints, advanced packaging timing, and why Q1 2026 will be more of the same
From WSJ’s How Intel Came Crashing Back To Earth After It’s Trump Bump:
When President Trump promised Intel nearly $9 billion and gave it his vote of confidence as an America-first tech company, it looked like the start of a new era. Investors assumed new orders would flow to the troubled chip maker and bid up the stock 120% in just five months.
And customer demand for Intel’s products did explode—but Intel wasn’t ready for it. After months of cutting capacity on its older production lines, the company was unprepared for a surge of orders for processors to put in AI data centers. Intel’s stock has crashed 17%, wiping out more than $46 billion in market value, since executives revealed the flub on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call Thursday.“The stock went vertical on vibes and tweets,” said Stacy Rasgon, a semiconductor analyst at Bernstein. “In theory, they should be in place to capitalize on this demand, but they’re not. What a shame.”
Stacy is right. The Intel stock run-up into Q4 earnings was built on tweets and vibes. Irrational, tbh. But the correction afterward shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone. Honestly, it was a return to reality.
Yes, rumors of foundry customers are a positive sign. But customers wouldn’t be announced on this call. That’s just not what LBT does. Furthermore, 14A design decisions happen in 2H26 to 1H27. Which doesn’t even guarantee we’ll hear announcements in that time frame; even if decisions are made in that window doesn’t mean the customer wants it announced immediately. Customer announcements are a lagging indicator.
Moreover, the market treated Intel’s server CPU supply-demand mismatch as a surprise. It wasn’t. It was well-telegraphed across multiple earnings calls. Investors who thought Intel would capture more of the AI CPU demand surge simply weren’t paying attention to previous signals.
Yes, the call had a few silver linings that optimists will get excited about. But even then, understanding the timing of those events matters.
For paid subscribers, we’ll discuss:
The signals Intel gave about supply issues in previous quarters
Headwinds to $1B+ EMIB deals
Why next quarter will be more of the same